Singapore economic growth weakens in first half of 2023
With continuing headwinds to global growth momentum in 2023 due to very weak growth in the US and EU and sluggish economic recovery in mainland China, the outlook for Singapore's manufacturing sector remains challenging. However, stronger exports of services, notably due to rising international tourist arrivals, will help to mitigate the impact of weaker growth in manufacturing exports.
The increase in Singapore's Goods and Services Tax (GST) by 1% from 7% to 8% implemented on 1st January 2023 will also act as a slight drag on economic growth in 2023, raising fiscal revenue by an estimated 0.7% of GDP per year. Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry has maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2023 in the range of 0.5% to 2.5%.
In 2023, taking into account the 1% increase in GST from 1st January 2023, headline and core CPI inflation are projected to average 5.5%-6.5% and 3.5%-4.5% respectively. MAS core inflation is projected by the MAS and MTI to remain elevated over the next few quarters, with risks still tilted to the upside, due to factors such as potential renewed shocks to world commodity prices and persistent global inflation pressures. Although prices of energy and food commodities have eased from their peaks, businesses will face higher utility prices and rising unit labour costs in the near-term. The MAS and MTI expect that MAS Core Inflation will moderate in the second half of 2023, as tightness in the domestic labour market eases and global inflation pressures moderate.
The medium-term outlook for Singapore's manufacturing sector is supported by a number of positive factors.
Despite near-term headwinds, medium-term prospects for Singapore's electronics industry remains favourable. The outlook for electronics demand is underpinned by major technological developments, including 5G rollout over the next five years, which will drive demand for 5G mobile phones. Demand for industrial electronics is also expected to grow rapidly over the medium term, helped by Industry 4.0, as industrial automation and the Internet of Things boosts rapidly growth in demand for industrial electronics. Singapore also remains an attractive hub for supply chain diversification for some high value-added segments of the electronics industry, as electronics manufacturers continue to diversify their supply chains for production of critical electronics products, notably semiconductors. Reflecting these trends, in 2022, Singapore attracted significant new foreign direct investment inflows into electronics manufacturing.
In the biomedical manufacturing sector, a number of new manufacturing facilities are being built by pharmaceuticals multinationals. This includes a new vaccine manufacturing facility being built by Sanofi Pasteur and a new mRNA vaccine manufacturing plant being built by BioNTech.
The aerospace engineering sector is currently experiencing rapid growth as the reopening of international borders in APAC is boosting commercial air travel across the region. Singapore's role as a leading international aviation hub is likely to continue to strengthen over the medium-term, helped by strong growth in APAC air travel and its role as a key Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) hub in APAC.
In the service sector, Singapore is expected to continue to be a leading global international financial centre for investment banking, wealth management and asset management. Singapore will also continue to be a key APAC hub for shipping, aviation and logistics, as well as an important APAC hub for regional headquartering.
However, an important long-term challenge for the Singapore economy will be from ageing demographics. In Budget 2023, the finance minister stated that a key issue for the Singapore economy over the medium to long term will be from demographic ageing, with Singapore having one of the world's fasted ageing populations. The proportion of Singapore's population that is currently aged over 65 years is one-sixth of the population, but this will rise to an estimated one-quarter by 2030. This will result in rising healthcare and social welfare costs and could gradually reduce Singapore's long-term potential GDP growth rate. The role of fiscal policy in addressing demographic ageing will continue to be a key focus for government policy over coming years as the economic impact of demographic ageing intensifies.
