Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 24 July 2023

Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan, Rajiv Biswas
July 20, 2023

Monday 24 Jul
Australia Manufacturing PMI (Jul, prelim)
Australia Services PMI (Jul, prelim)
Japan Manufacturing PMI (Jul, prelim)
Japan Services PMI (Jul, prelim)
Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul, prelim)
Germany Services PMI (Jul, prelim)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul, prelim)
Eurozone Services PMI (Jul, prelim)
United States Manufacturing PMI (Jul, prelim)
United States Services PMI (Jul, prelim)
United States Existing Home Sales (Jun)

Tuesday 25 Jul
South Korea Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Germany Ifo Business Climate (Jul)
United States New Home Sales (Jun)
United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

Wednesday 26 Jul
Australia Inflation Rate (Q2)
United States Durable Goods Orders (Jun, prelim)
United States Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thursday 27 Jul
South Korea GDP (Q2, advance)
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug)
United States GDP Growth Rate (Q2, advance)
United States Durable Goods (Jun)
United States Initial Jobless Claims
United States Wholesale Inventories (Jun, advance)
United States Goods Trade Balance (Jun, advance)
United States Pending Home Sales (Jun)

Friday 28 Jul
South Korea Industrial Production and Retail Sales (Jun)
Australia Retail Sales (Jun, prelim)
Australia PPI (Q2)
Singapore Unemployment Rate (Q2, prelim)
Japan BOJ Interest Rate Decision
France GDP (Q2, prelim)
France Inflation Rate (Jul, prelim)
Germany PPI (Jul)
Taiwan GDP (Q2, advance)
Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Jul)
Germany Inflation (Jul, prelim)
Canada GDP (May, prelim)
United States Personal Income and Spending (Jun)
United States Core PCE Index (Jun)
United States UoM Sentiment (Jul, final)

What to watch

Flash PMI release for July

July's flash PMI for major developed economies, including the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be released at the start of the week. Further insights into inflation and economic growth developments at the sat of the third quarter will be sought with these early economic data releases.

Specifically, whether manufacturing output continued to decline in July will be a key question to consider in the flash PMIs alongside the issue of whether the services rebound has peaked. Additionally, although service sector output price inflation eased in the June surveys, policymakers will remain worried about any persistent elevated rates of increase. Read more in our special report.

Americas: Fed FOMC meeting, Q2 GDP (adv), core PCE, durable goods, new home sales, personal income and spending data, plus consumer confidence

The Fed convenes in the coming week and will update their monetary policy decision at the end of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. According to indications from the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is widely expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points (bps) in July but this will potentially be the last of 2023. As such, the focus will be on the Fed's rhetoric from both the statement and press conference.

A busy US economic calendar also notably includes Q2 GDP data with the consensus pointing to a rate of growth comparable to that seen in the first quarter of 2023.

Europe: ECB meeting, German Ifo Business Climate, Eurozone, Germany and France GDP and inflation

In addition to the Fed, the ECB is also expected to lift rates next week and the focus will likewise be on the rhetoric addressing the path forward. A series of tier-1 data, including euro area GDP and inflation readings, will follow flash PMIs and will similarly guide expectations on the European monetary policy front.

Asia-Pacific: BOJ, BI, HKMA meetings, South Korea, Taiwan GDP

Various central bank meetings also unfold in APAC. Although no surprises on interest rates are expected, the BOJ will be closely watched for any indications of change on the yield curve control front this month.

Special reports

Inflation and Growth Signals: What to Watch for in the Upcoming July PMI Surveys - Chris Williamson

Singapore Economic Growth Weakens in First Half of 2023 - Rajiv Biswas

Download full report

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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